Total Energy (TotalEnergies) has adopted a two-track strategy of successful oil and gas exploration and renewable energy development. This strategy has contributed to the resilience and broad prospects of business development. Welcome to this week's Smartbroker + chart analysis-Total Energy.
The Iran conflict and its aftermath continued to make waves in global financial and equity markets this week. Continued military operations in the Gulf and the posture of mutual deterrence between Israel, the United States and Iran continue to keep investors on high alert. High energy prices triggered a sell-off at the beginning of the weekend, not only in Asian and European trading venues, but also in precious metals and bond markets. "Sell everything" seems to be a common call among investors today. In addition to the obvious beneficiaries of the oil and gas crisis, almost no other "strong fortress" can be found ". This is both an opportunity and a risk, as the return on investment directly depends on the further developments of the situation in the Middle East.
A strategy for dual success from oil and gas and renewables
As a compromise between acute crisis beneficiaries and potential long-term outperformers, the French company Total Energy and its shares offer such an opportunity. On the one hand, Total Energy is a fully integrated oil and gas producer with a global production and distribution network. As a result, higher energy prices translate directly into higher profit margins and corporate earnings. On the other hand, the group's focus in recent years has shifted to renewable energy expansion, and unlike other companies such as BP, it has not been affected by temporary headwinds to shake the share price. With a total installed capacity of 26 GW, Total Energy has become one of the world's largest renewable energy power suppliers. The company also has numerous wind farms and solar power plants in Germany. These assets also benefit from higher energy prices because they provide very low power generation costs, thereby ensuring high profit margins. Even if oil and gas prices fall in the future, given the rapid growth in energy demand, Total Energy will still be in a very competitive position in the future.
Total Energy Chart Signals
* Strong uptrend: Total Energy has been in a dynamic uptrend since last year and has recently accelerated significantly. * Technical Breakthrough: Thanks to the acceleration of the trend, the stock successfully broke through the 70 euro and other important resistance areas. * Record high: The subsequent follow-on rally drove new all-time highs, constituting a strong technical buy signal. * Short-term overbought: From the daily chart, the stock is overbought. While this implies downside risk, it could also open new entry opportunities at the same time.
Source: Self-made, time period shown: March 23, 2021 to March 23, 2026
Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. In addition, due to exchange rate fluctuations, the rate of return may be lower or higher than the performance of the underlying assets.
Total Energy's strategy for both!
Despite the extreme volatility of oil and gas prices over the past few years, Total Energy's share price has generally performed satisfactorily. Starting from an all-time low of around € 20 during the neo-crown crash (when US oil prices were negative at one point), an upward trend was established, and although it experienced a longer period of consolidation in 2024/2025, it was able to regain its upward trend after the formation of a double bottom last year. Thanks to the improvement of technical indicators, especially the bullish divergence in the relative strength index (RSI) and trend strength indicator MACD, and the jump on the moving average, Total Energy opened the 2026 stock market year with strong momentum.
Even before the outbreak of the Iran conflict, the stock had begun to rise and accelerate, forming an extremely steep short-term upward trend channel. Shares were even able to break upward after the trend intensified further last week. However, from an RSI perspective, this leaves the stock overbought, which could lead to a pullback in the short term.
Overall, from a technical point of view, completely new possibilities have been opened up. The sharp rise in the past few weeks has been helped by the break through the resistance zone of 70 euros. The subsequent follow-on rally also created new all-time highs, which is seen as a strong buy signal in technical analysis. With both breakouts and new records confirmed by highs in the RSI and MACD, this should be seen as a sustainable development at a higher level. Although the short-term overheating may support the stepping back, in the medium and long-term, the share price may continue to rise, especially the stock is extremely well supported in the € 60 and € 70 region, and the moving averages are quickly keeping up.
Valuations show huge upside and catch-up potential
In terms of corporate valuations, Total Energy also offers investors a number of bright spots. For 2026, the company is valued at 11 times expected earnings, which is significantly lower than the 10-year average of 12.7 times and, more importantly, well below the industry average of 15.6 times. The valuation discount is even greater compared to comparable oil majors such as Chevron and Exxon Mobil, which currently have earnings multiples of 25.0 and 20.7 respectively. If you refer to Energy, the NextEra of the renewable energy industry, there is also a significant valuation discount given the expected 2026 P/E ratio of 22.3, a trend that continues in other indicators, showing significant potential for catch-up gains. As a result, the expected earnings growth for the French this year is extremely cheap. The price-to-earnings growth rate (PEG), which is generally considered excellent below 1, is only 0.5, compared to the industry average of 1.52. In terms of dividend yield, Total Energy also performed well, with 6.2 per cent in 2025 and 4.5 per cent expected in 2026. The intra-industry comparative value is 2.9 per cent. This suggests a structural undervaluation.
Stock preferred by experts
In the past few weeks, analysts have struggled to keep up with the rapid rise in stock prices. As a result, the current average price target is € 74.16, 3.5 per cent below Monday's afternoon close. According to some research institutions, the stock still has a lot of room to rise. Just a few days ago, the British bank Barclays gave a target price of 94 euros. On the skeptical side, there is a proposal to reduce the position to the target price of 56.50 euros. Overall, Total Energy enjoys broad support. Of the 22 existing assessments, 10 are recommended to buy, 5 are recommended to increase, and 6 are recommended to hold. After considering the critical assessment, a recommendation to buy the shares is generally made.
Total Energy at a Glance
* ISIN:FR0000120271 * Market cap: € 190.1 billion * Dividend yield: 6.2 per cent * 2026 P/E: 11.0 * Analyst average rating: Buy
By Max Gross,wallstreetONLINE Editorial Department
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